President Donald Trump announced a sweeping new tariff on January 12, 2026, targeting any nation conducting business with Iran. The policy takes effect immediately. "Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive," Trump posted on Truth Social.

The move represents secondary sanctions, penalizing third-party nations for engaging with Tehran. It mirrors Trump's previous "maximum pressure" campaign and comes as Iran faces violent crackdowns on protesters, with reported deaths by Iranian opposition accounts surpassing 12,000. Trump has hinted at military action, saying the U.S. is "locked and loaded" if Iran escalates violence against demonstrators.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned of readiness for war and accused the U.S. of serving Israeli interests. The tariff aims to further isolate Iran economically as its currency collapses and international pressure mounts.

The death toll inside Iran has reached staggering proportions, yet silence greets the carnage from American protest movements. The same activists who took streets for Palestine remain mute on Iran's 12,000 dead. Propaganda has shaped their worldview to see Iran as not the bad guy. Twelve thousand corpses have left them confused and speechless. They do not know what to think or what to say. Streets that were once filled with demonstrators now sit empty.

Meanwhile, pro-regime protesters march in liberal cities across the United States, mainly California and New York. Tehran operates on the narrative that all of this was orchestrated by America and Israel. Death counts are propaganda, the regime claims. If deaths occurred, they say, they were violent protesters or terrorists who deserved their fate.

Most people inside Iran reject this narrative. Nearly all Iranians want to see the regime fall. The disconnect between Iranian reality and American protest silence exposes how effectively propaganda shapes Western activism.

Iran's economy depends heavily on oil exports, producing over 4 million barrels daily. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels globally each day. This tariff targets Iran's largest trading partners, potentially disrupting billions in trade.

China faces the heaviest blow. As Iran's largest trading partner and primary oil buyer despite existing sanctions, China imports roughly 10 to 15 percent of its oil from Iran. The tariff could add over $125 billion in costs to Chinese goods entering the U.S., escalating existing trade wars. China may retaliate by dumping U.S. Treasuries or restricting rare earth exports, spiking global prices. The move forces Beijing to choose between cheap Iranian oil and U.S. market access, potentially pushing it closer to Russia for energy while weakening its Belt and Road initiatives in the Middle East.

The United Arab Emirates, a key re-export hub, handles $15 to $20 billion in annual trade with Iran. Turkey, which trades gold, energy, and consumer goods worth $10 to $15 billion yearly with Iran, faces medium impact that could affect vehicle exports and strain ties with the NATO ally. Iraq, home to U.S. military presence yet influenced by Iran, absorbs dual exposure. India, which reduced Russian oil imports but maintains Iranian ties, handles $5 to $10 billion in annual trade with Iran. Russia, already sanctioned, sees low direct impact but faces further isolation as Iranian revenue streams dry up.

Economists warn the tariff is "profoundly self-harming" for the U.S., risking global retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and inflation as costs pass to American consumers.

The tariff compounds pressure on Iran's network of allies. Russia, already squeezed by low oil prices around $50 per barrel, loses Iranian revenue that funds joint weapons and energy ventures. Combined with U.S. control of Venezuelan oil through what analysts call "sovereign asset capture," Russia faces tighter budget constraints and may accelerate de-dollarization through BRICS.

Syria depends on roughly $10 billion annually in Iranian oil and military support. A dried-up Iran indirectly starves Damascus by cutting Tehran's funds. Iraq, balancing U.S. military presence against Iranian influence, feels immediate pain from its $10 billion-plus annual trade with Iran in electricity and goods. The tariff risks internal Shiite backlash and potential U.S. troop withdrawals.

Proxy groups funded by Iran take harder hits. Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, weakened by reduced Iranian cashflow, face scaling back operations. That could ease Israeli pressures and potentially reduce Red Sea shipping attacks if Houthis lose funding. Venezuela, recently aligned with the U.S. after Washington's swift operation, sees the tariff reinforce its shift away from Iran's bloc.

Lower global oil prices hurt all oil-dependent adversaries. The tariff signals Washington's willingness for unilateral action, resetting global power dynamics. Analysts warn of regional chaos if Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz, potentially spiking oil to $100 per barrel or higher.

We don't see this as the end of the strikes. We would expect serious kinetic or cyber operations against Iran, and we are still waiting to see a serious U.S. response. This is not the end.

Australia took a decisive step on January 13, 2026, formally declaring Iran's government lacks legitimacy. Foreign Minister Penny Wong made the pronouncement directly. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese committed to backing a "democratic Iran" that respects human rights, condemning the "oppressive regime" now massacring its own people in the streets.

This declaration marks the second formal statement of illegitimacy at the UN level, after Israel. Australia is aligning with the United States and Israel in recognizing a fundamental shift. The Iranian state, collapsing under the weight of 12,000 dead protesters and economic freefall, no longer commands recognition from major Western democracies.

Australia has been escalating its stance for months. In August 2025, the government expelled Iran's ambassador over alleged organization of attacks abroad. It supported U.S. strikes on Iran in June 2025. Travel warnings were issued for Australians in Iran. Now, with the regime's grip weakening by the day, Australia is moving from criticism to delegitimization.

The Iranian diaspora in Australia seized on this moment. They hoisted the pre-1979 Lion and Sun flag at Iranian embassies, replacing the Islamic Republic's standard. The Lion and Sun is the symbol of the Shah's era, a flag the regime outlawed nearly five decades ago. This act of defiance spreads globally. In London, a protester scaled the Iranian embassy to raise the flag. In Melbourne, outside the U.S. Consulate, the banner flew again. In Tehran itself, protesters burned the regime's colors and raised the old symbol.

Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, 65 and exiled in the United States, promoted the flag campaign on social media. The message is unambiguous: Iranians abroad are betting the regime's final days have arrived.

Australia's stance reflects a coordinated Western response to Iran's collapse. The regime kills thousands of its own people. Its currency has evaporated. International isolation tightens by the week. Western governments are no longer waiting to see if the Islamic Republic survives. They are declaring it already dead. Australia is making moves in an attempt to gain more goodwill with the Jewish community inside the country. January 22 will now be a day of remembrance for the Bondi Beach massacre which was a case of Islamic violence against Jews exclusively.

This shift carries weight. Recognition of legitimacy is not merely symbolic. It opens pathways for diplomatic recognition of alternative authorities, freezes assets, and signals to other nations that the game has changed. Australia, a major economy and developed democracy, joining Israel and the U.S. in delegitimizing Tehran sends a message to China, India, Russia, and the Gulf states that the Iranian regime's time is ending.