CENTCOM Has a Strike Plan. Trump Gets Briefed Thursday.

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei used Persian Gulf Day to send a message. “Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometers away with greedy intentions have no place there, except at the bottom of its waters.” He pledged to dismantle U.S. “exploitation” of the Strait of Hormuz and declared Iran will guard its missile and nuclear technology like its borders. President Pezeshkian echoed him, calling Iran the guardian of Hormuz, committed to freedom of navigation “for all countries except hostile ones.”

Axios reported today (April 30) that CENTCOM (U.S. Central Command) has prepared a plan for a short, powerful wave of strikes on Iran aimed at breaking the negotiating deadlock. President Trump will receive a briefing Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper on potential military action. Trump told Axios he won’t lift the blockade: “I don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon.” He said he would consider military action if Iran refuses to act.

Brent crude topped $120 per barrel for the first time since June 2022. U.S. oil surged above $110. Gas at the pump hit $4.30 per gallon, the highest in nearly four years. The Iranian rial crashed to an all-time low: 1,810,000 to the dollar. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced close to half a billion in Iran-related crypto seized and said the U.S. is willing to impose secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers. The Department of War said Tehran is now loading oil onto retired ships because its storage is running out.

CENTCOM has requested approval to deploy the “Dark Eagle” long-range hypersonic missile to the Middle East, targeting Iranian ballistic missile launchers beyond the reach of current U.S. systems. Range: roughly 1,725 miles. If approved, it would be the system’s first operational deployment. The USS Gerald R. Ford continues flight operations in the Red Sea. A separate report says the Pentagon is sending one carrier home.

“They have to cry uncle, just say, ‘We give up.’”

— President Trump on Iran

Sec. of War Pete Hegseth testified before Congress, putting the Iran campaign cost at an estimated $25 billion. He called Iran’s nuclear facilities “obliterated” and said the Pentagon is putting defense capabilities back on a wartime footing with a 7% pay increase for lower enlisted troops and a force expansion of nearly 50,000 additional service members. He saved his sharpest fire for Capitol Hill: “The biggest adversary we face at this point are the reckless, feckless, and defeatist words of Congressional Democrats and some Republicans.”

Iran’s response: denial and threats. The Iranian Navy Chief promised to soon reveal a weapon “they deeply fear, right on their doorstep.” Iran’s Ghalibaf claimed the blockade hasn’t cracked a single oil well in three days. An advisor to Khamenei Jr. warned that U.S. warships could be sunk and troops killed if the war continues. Fahd Al-Shaleimi, President of the Gulf Forum for Peace and Security, offered a Gulf Arab perspective: “Iran is an enemy of the Arabs. It seeks to obtain nuclear weapons and seize Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem. There is a North Korea on the shores of the Arabian Gulf.”

Putin called Trump for more than 90 minutes. He warned of “extremely harmful consequences” if the U.S. and Israel attack Iran again. Trump pivoted to Ukraine, saying a deal is “already close.” Putin offered a ceasefire during the Victory Day period. Trump supported it. The Kremlin said both leaders expressed similar assessments of Zelensky’s government, which they said is prolonging the conflict.

The UK Ministry of Defence released footage of British troops sheltering as an Iranian ballistic missile hit their base. Trump said he’s “very disappointed” NATO “just wasn’t there” on Iran, adding that if it were up to King Charles, he would have probably helped.

$120

Brent Crude / Barrel

1.81M:$1

Rial All-Time Low

$25B

War Cost to Date

Navy Seizes Flotilla Off Crete, Hezbollah Strikes the North

The Israeli Navy and Shayetet 13 commandos intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla, a 58-vessel activist convoy that departed Italy bound for Gaza. 21 boats were boarded and seized near the Greek island of Crete, hundreds of nautical miles from Israeli waters. Around 175 passengers were detained at sea and are being transported to Ashdod for deportation. The remaining boats have been warned to change course. Past flotilla interceptions took place near Israeli shores. This one happened in open Mediterranean waters.

The flotilla organizers released audio of an Israeli Navy officer: “If you wish to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, you may do so through established and recognized channels. Please change course and return to the port of origin.” They claimed military speedboats aimed lasers and weapons at passengers. IDF Navy footage from one of the seized vessels shows troops calling out “Don’t move, no one move!” Israel’s Foreign Ministry posted video of activists “enjoying themselves aboard Israeli vessels” and dubbed it the “condom flotilla.”

On the northern border, a Hezbollah drone struck near Shomera this morning, wounding 12 soldiers. The drone hit an armored cargo carrier, setting it on fire and detonating nearby artillery shells. Two soldiers in moderate condition. The IDF is investigating whether the drone was fiber optic-guided, which would make it immune to electronic jamming. Hezbollah also claims it shot down an Israeli Hermes 450 drone over southern Lebanon.

The IDF responded with force. The Alpinist Unit and Yahalom Combat Engineering Unit demolished Hezbollah combat positions on Mount Dov. The 91st Division struck more than 30 weapons depots, headquarters, and infrastructure sites across southern Lebanon over two days. Five Hezbollah operatives spotted by the 146th Division were eliminated in airstrikes. Evacuation warnings went out to eight southern Lebanese villages. Al-Mayadeen reported 9 killed and 17 wounded in strikes on three villages. The IDF Chief of Staff, speaking from Lebanon: “We will not leave until long-term security is guaranteed for the northern communities. There is no ceasefire on the front.”

Channel 12 reported that Trump told Netanyahu to be more “surgical” in Lebanon and stop knocking down buildings, saying it would damage Israel’s image. Netanyahu posted IDF airstrike footage in Lebanon shortly after. With music. Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office also confirmed Netanyahu is not expected to travel to the U.S. next week but is speaking frequently with Trump.

France’s Jordan Bardella: “Hezbollah must be disarmed. Targeted strikes and operations by Israel can be considered legitimate.” France’s Defense Minister warned Lebanon is on the brink of civil war. Russia’s Lavrov urged the world not to overlook the situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah has reportedly smuggled thousands of FPV explosive drones into Lebanon through border crossings. Lebanese security seized one truck last June carrying 5,000 drones, but sources say dozens of other shipments made it through. The IDF released footage of a Hezbollah rocket launcher positioned inside a civilian property in southern Lebanon, aimed at Israel.

In Gaza, the IDF eliminated Hamas operative Ibrahim Abu Sakkar, who had been planning an imminent attack on Israeli forces and led numerous attacks during the war. He also served as a paramedic in Hamas’s Military Medical Services. Separately, a vessel carrying grain that Ukraine says was stolen by Russia will not unload in Israel, per the Grain Importers Association.

Islamist Stabs Two Jews Near Golders Green Synagogue

An Islamist man targeted and stabbed two visibly Jewish men near a synagogue in Golders Green, one of London’s most prominent Jewish neighborhoods. One victim is in his 70s, the other in his 30s. Both seriously wounded.

Footage shows the attacker chasing Jews down the street, then turning on two police officers who initially ran back from him. They used a Taser moments later, dropping him to the ground. London’s Met Police declared it a terrorist incident. The chief said the suspect has “a history of serious violence and mental health issues” and linked antisemitism to “extremist ideologies from hostile states, the extreme right and left, all rooted in racism.”

Ashab al-Yamin, an Iran-crafted front group, claimed responsibility. The group called the stabbing “heroic,” urged Muslims to carry out further attacks against Jews, and praised the attacker. Their first claimed attack in Europe in nearly two weeks.

“Weakness is igniting antisemitic attacks one after another in London. Words are not enough to combat this plague. We request and expect the British government to act to protect British Jews and prosecute antisemites.”

— Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office

Separately, British activist Hussain Hoz Shafiei claimed Mossad was behind 9/11 and that the Bondi Beach shooting was engineered to give Australian Jews “protected class” status. He called the Israeli lobby a “corrosive force” occupying Western democracies.

Iran’s blockade, rial collapse, and oil storage crisis are running in parallel with Israeli operations dismantling its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, while an Iran-crafted front group claims a terror attack on Jews in London. CENTCOM’s Thursday briefing to Trump will determine whether the pressure campaign stays economic or goes kinetic.