I believe we are closer to United States intervention than most people are prepared to admit. Not because of a single declaration or a visible mobilization, but because of the choreography of the past 24 hours and the way modern wars now announce themselves without ever formally beginning. What unfolded last night did not feel improvised. It felt sequenced.

First came the quiet movements. Personnel were drawn down from American facilities across the Middle East. Nothing dramatic. No sirens. Just the kind of logistical adjustments that only matter if you know what they usually precede. These moves rarely signal intention on their own. But they do signal readiness.

Then came the statement. President Donald Trump said the killings in Iran had stopped. It was confusing for a lot of people, as the tune of the song seem to have abruptly changed.
The claim was striking not because it was reassuring, but because Iran’s internet remained largely dark and has been so for over a week.
When a country is still digitally sealed, information does not flow outward. Assertions of calm in that environment are not confirmations. They are messages.

Within hours, Reuters published a report citing Western military officials who said an operation could be imminent. The language was careful. It always is. They didn't give timelines…. No confirmation.
Just enough specificity to travel instantly through every foreign ministry and general staff in the region.

Then came the signals directed at Tehran itself. Messages, some public, some not, that Washington was prepared to act. Shortly after, Iran closed its airspace, and plenty of airlines canceled flights to the region. Commercial aviation does not shut down lightly. When it does, it reflects fear of what might cross the sky without warning.

And then the final note. Fighter jets began moving across Iraqi airspace. Loud enough to be noticed. Visible enough to be shared by a large number of accounts on social media and OSINT circles.
Not an attack, but not an accident either. Just another reminder of proximity…. Of reach.

None of this, taken alone, proves that a strike was about to occur. Taken together, it looks like a textbook scare operation. The kind designed to paralyze decision making, saturate intelligence channels, and force adversaries to prepare for the wrong moment. This would not be the first time we’ve seen a “pumpfake” before the actual shot is taken. 

It is important to say this clearly: The United States does not yet have the full military posture in place for a sustained regional defense, let alone a prolonged war. Carrier coverage, missile defense saturation, logistics depth. These things are visible, and they are not fully assembled. That matters…..Which is precisely why last night mattered.

The effect was very confusing for analysts, whose whole job is to make sense of all this information. Among governments and among markets, an attack felt possible.
Plausible for sure and maybe even imminent.
And that ambiguity was the point. If Washington strikes, it will want the action to come as a surprise. Not after days of televised buildup, but out of silence. That is, of course, if what they wanted to do was to be effective and not simply strike for theatrical purposes.

The coming week may bring more of this. More information that cannot be verified because the country at the center of it remains sealed from the world. 

But if we take President Trump at his word, and that is never simple, his threshold is not theoretical. It is personal. He has said repeatedly that the scale of killing matters. If and when credible numbers emerge showing how many protesters actually died, the calculation may change abruptly.

In that spirit, the USS Abraham Lincoln is leaving the South China Sea and heading for the Middle East. The order, quietly issued by the Pentagon, sends one of America’s most powerful ships and its entire carrier strike group away from China’s front yard and into the U.S. Central Command theater, where Iran is the problem everyone is now planning for.

Until now, there was no American carrier in the region at all, a rare gap trackable on open-source fleet maps. The Lincoln is the closest available answer to that absence. So it makes sense this would be the choice.

The ship itself is a massive. The USS Abraham Lincoln is a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, capable of carrying around 90 aircraft at full load, including F/A-18 Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes, and helicopters.
It recently conducted F-35C flight operations during its Indo Pacific cruise. It's a floating airbase that can bring stealth jets, electronic warfare, and airborne early warning to any coastline within reach.
Flanking it is Carrier Strike Group 3: guided-missile destroyers USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy, and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., all Arleigh Burke class ships built for air, surface, and subsurface warfare, carrying Tomahawk cruise missiles and Aegis air defense systems.
Below the surface, at least one attack submarine is believed to be accompanying the group, and logistics ships keep the formation fueled and supplied.

The transit to its post in the Middle East will take roughly a week, depending on routing and speed, and OSINT accounts tracking its movement expect it to appear on the edge of the Gulf by late January.

Wars no longer begin with declarations. They begin with patterns. And the pattern that emerged last night was not random. It was deliberate. And it was meant to be seen.

Whether it was rehearsal or misdirection remains unclear. But rehearsals are not performed unless the actors expect to eventually take the stage.

Phase Two of President Donald Trump's 20 Point Plan for Gaza is underway…. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Peace Missions in the Middle East announced it yesterday. 

Witkoff, a real estate developer and Trump confidant appointed shortly after the 2024 reelection, has shuttled between Cairo, Jerusalem, and Doha alongside Jared Kushner to broker progress.

The announcement makes a pivot from Phase One's ceasefire to the harder work of disarming Hamas, installing technocratic rule, and rebuilding Gaza as a "deradicalized terror free zone." 

"Today, on behalf of President Trump, we are announcing the launch of Phase Two of the President’s 20-Point Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, moving from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction," Witkoff wrote.

He credited Phase One successes…..”historic” humanitarian aid, a sustained ceasefire since October 10, 2025, return of all living hostages, and remains of 27 out of 28 deceased….Moving even further to mediation by Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar.
Witkoff demanded full Hamas compliance, including immediate return of the final deceased hostage, with "serious consequences" for failure. Though these threats, as we’ve seen in the past, are not usually effective in creating a rapid response from Hamas.

Trump unveiled the blueprint for his Gaza plan on September 29, 2025, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.
Hamas had initially rejected it, but accepted Phase One parameters not long after, on October 3, leading to the ceasefire we currently find ourselves in.
The full plan, from their perspective, avoids Israeli annexation while neutralizing threats to their organization. Phase 2 will be different.

So what are the core elements of Trump’s master plan?:

Aid and reconstruction proceed in "terror-free" zones if Hamas resists.

As you can see, this is no small feat, and many think this is just WAY out of touch with reality.

But that does not stop Trump from trucking along, slowly but surely.

Phase One froze battle lines at the "yellow line," with IDF controlling 53% of Gaza including buffers. Israel released 2,000 prisoners. Aid rehabilitated water, power, hospitals, roads per prior agreements. Over 400 Palestinian deaths occurred from incidents and demolitions since.

Phase Two demands Hamas disarm "unauthorized personnel," destroy infrastructure, and accept NCAG rule. ISF, potentially from Pakistan, Jordan, Egypt, UAE, secures borders and trains police. Reconstruction emphasizes jobs and investment. Regional guarantors ensure compliance.

Hamas rules with a very heavy hand…Taxing aid and rebuilding checkpoints. They’ve shown no signs of wanting to disband. Though just today a senior Hamas official told Reuters: We are ready to transfer our authority to a Palestinian technocratic body.

Witkoff's warning to Gaza is: comply or lose ground. Phase Two tests if the ceasefire holds or crumbles into renewed fighting. Gaza's future balances on Hamas's next move.

Today, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, spoke with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan at a moment when Tehran is under acute internal pressure and Washington is openly weighing military options. The message from Iran was predictable. Tehran will defend itself against any foreign threat. Foreign interference, Araghchi said, must be globally condemned.

What mattered more was who was listening.

Saudi Arabia has spent years portraying Iran as the central destabilizing force in the region. It has blamed Tehran for proxy wars, missile threats, and the erosion of Arab state authority from Beirut to Sana’a. Yet as the prospect of U.S. action against Iran has edged from theoretical to plausible, Riyadh’s posture has shifted. Quietly, carefully, and unmistakably.

According to Iranian readouts, both sides agreed on the need to strengthen relations in all areas of mutual interest. It is a familiar phrase, and a revealing one. When Saudi Arabia speaks of mutual interest, it rarely means shared values or trust. It means risk management.

That calculus has become clearer in recent days. The New York Times reported that Saudi Arabia, alongside Qatar and Oman, has urged the Trump administration not to strike Iran. The argument is framed as concern over regional stability. Regime change, they warn, could create a vacuum that Israel might move to fill.

It is a striking position from a country that has long demanded tougher action against Tehran. What Saudi Arabia fears now is not Iran’s survival, but Iran’s collapse. A weakened Islamic Republic could unleash instability that does not respect borders or oil infrastructure. Chaos does not price well into markets.

Saudi officials have gone further. A source close to the Saudi military told AFP that Riyadh has informed Tehran directly it will not participate in any military action against Iran, and that Saudi territory and airspace will not be used. This was not said publicly. It was conveyed quietly, the way serious assurances usually are.

The outreach came as President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric. Speaking at the White House late Wednesday, Trump said he had been told executions in Iran had stopped, while warning that a return to such measures would be deeply regrettable. It sounded less like a green light than a pause. In the region, pauses are read closely.

Protests have spread across Iran since late last month, driven by economic collapse and public fury at the regime. The crackdown has been severe. Iranian officials have responded by accusing the United States and Israel of orchestrating what they call riots and terrorism, a familiar deflection. On Wednesday, Kan reported that Israeli assessments suggested a U.S. strike on Iran could come within days.

Saudi Arabia sees all of this and is making a calculation that has little to do with morality or alignment. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom operates on balance sheets and risk models. War disrupts oil markets. War frightens investors. War invites retaliation that does not always land where intended.

So Riyadh talks to Tehran. Not out of trust, but out of self preservation. It warns Washington against acting too forcefully, while privately assuring Iran that Saudi Arabia will not be a launchpad for war. It positions itself as indispensable to de escalation, even as it benefits from Iran’s isolation.

In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has effectively chosen a side. By engaging Tehran at the height of the crackdown, Riyadh is signaling that it is prepared to look past the slaughter of Iranian citizens without consequence. The message is implicit but unmistakable. Stability matters more than accountability. By telling Iran that cooperation must continue, Saudi Arabia is showing the region and Washington alike that mass repression is not a red line, so long as markets remain calm and escalation is contained. This is not neutrality. It is a calculation.