INDONESIA Set To Enter Gaza

In eastern Rafah, the IDF says a unit from the 7th Armored Brigade was clearing an area when four gunmen suddenly climbed out of a tunnel and opened fire on the troops. The soldiers shot back and killed all four. No Israeli casualties.

Abu Obeida, the al Qassam spokesman, told a different story. He praised “heroic” fighters trapped in Rafah tunnels who “refused humiliation or submission” and chose martyrdom. Then he turned his guns inward. He accused Gaza based militias aligned with Israel of helping hunt those fighters down. He called them “tools of the occupation” and promised a “dark fate” for collaborators.

In recent days, reports from Rafah described local gang figures tied to Israel mocking Hamas families and openly bragging about cooperation. Hamas has already activated internal units like Sahm 103 to track and eliminate suspected collaborators. Rafah is not just a frontline with Israel anymore. It is an internal battlefield over who actually controls the streets. Groups like the Abu Shabab militia have been fighting Hamas, even capturing Hamas militants and running checkpoints alongside the IDF.

At the same time, Indonesia is preparing something that would have sounded impossible two years ago…. A brigade sized force for Gaza.

Jakarta is getting ready to send between 5,000 and 8,000 soldiers as the first major component of the International Stabilization Force under Trump’s Board of Peace plan. These troops are being trained for engineering, medical and stabilization roles. Not for direct combat. Locations and dates are still being negotiated, but the working assumption is that they will live in the southeast of Rafah. Offices and quarters are due to be built for them in the coming weeks.

Indonesia matters for two reasons. It is the largest Muslim majority country in the world with more than 240 million Muslims. Yet it is a secular republic. It is run under the Pancasila philosophy that emphasizes religious diversity and tolerance, not under national Sharia. Major organizations like Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah promote a relatively moderate, local form of Islam.

President Prabowo has publicly called for an independent Palestine, which has been seen by some as a red flag. Though, in the same speech he said that the safety and security of Israel must also be guaranteed. Many in the region saw that as Jakarta signaling that, under the right conditions, it would accept relations with Israel. Now, we see those relations coming to pass.

So the first foreign troops to enter Gaza under this framework will likely be Indonesian soldiers. Muslim. Non Arab. Coming in under a U.S. anchored stabilization umbrella. They are meant to be the first visible face of phase two in Gaza. Demilitarization and reconstruction. 

Khaled Mashal, Hamas leader said that “Disarmament for a Palestinian means stripping away his very soul,”....Making it clear that Hamas will not disarm or stand down. With foreign troops on the ground, this quickly becomes an international issue. Not only Israel’s.

Netanyahu is heading to Washington.

He moved the visit forward in light of the first indirect U.S. Iran round in Muscat. He will sit with Trump to talk Gaza, the region, and especially the nuclear and missile talks with Tehran. This is their seventh meeting since Trump returned to office.

Netanyahu wants the United States to harden its position. He thinks the U.S. is being too soft at the moment. He wants ballistic missiles explicitly included in their agenda. He wants Iranian support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis on the table as part of any deal. He does not want Muscat to lock in a “nuclear only” track that leaves rockets and proxies untouched while enrichment continues in a different form.

Gaza is also very much on the table, though temporarily overshadowed by Iran…. Phase one was military. Breaking Hamas as an organized fighting force. Phase two is demilitarization and reconstruction. That is where the Board of Peace and the International Stabilization Force come in. 

Yesterday, the U.S. maritime authorities quietly told American captains to stay as far from Iran’s waters as you can when you pass the Strait of Hormuz.

The advisory said U.S. flagged vessels should hug the Omani side on eastbound transits, as much as safety allows. It told masters to decline Iranian boarding requests if they can do so safely, and to cite the Law of the Sea when they refuse. The message was: Do not give the IRGC an easy excuse to climb aboard.

Just six days ago, on February 3, the U.S. flagged tanker Stena Imperative was transiting near the Strait when IRGC fast boats attempted to close in….. They ordered the ship to stop. They threatened boarding. A U.S. destroyer moved in and escorted the tanker out. No boarding. No shots. But the message from Iran was also clear. They still see American shipping as fair game for harassment in “their” (international) waters. 

CENTCOM condemned the incident as harassment and threats in international waters. Things keep moving but captains should treat Iranian waters as a danger zone even in a period that is supposed to be about de escalation.

Two days later, on February 5, Iran started seizing ships again.

IRGC naval units near Farsi Island intercepted two foreign flagged oil tankers. Iranian outlets say they were carrying more than a million liters of smuggled fuel, including diesel, as part of a long running smuggling network. About 15 foreign crew members were detained. The ships were ordered to Bushehr for “judicial action.” Western tracking hasn't publicly linked specific IMO numbers or vessel names yet, nor which country the boat was from.

This happened only hours before the U.S. Iran nuclear talks in Oman. So while Araghchi and Witkoff were preparing for diplomacy in Muscat, the IRGC Navy was grabbing tankers in the Gulf. A reminder to Washington and to the region that Iran can still cause trouble in the water whenever it wants…And you will still negotiate with us.

Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said that Iran is prepared to dilute its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium. That material is one short technical step from weapons grade. The condition is that “all sanctions” be lifted in return. And that Iran’s nuclear rights under the NPT be respected in full.

Eslami made a point of saying that sending uranium abroad was not on the table in recent talks. The offer is about dilution at home, not export. Iran will not shut down enrichment on its own soil and will not ship stockpiles out. It is offering to adjust purity in exchange for full economic relief. But with no checks and balances, it could simply be a lie.

The general issue with sanctions relief is, as we’ve seen in the past, the money made by Iran goes straight into their ballistic missile and proxy programs. This poses a major risk and must be dismantled rather than propped back up with false promises and no oversight. Israel has made it clear. They see the ballistic missiles as a major existential threat and will not allow Iran to scale any further than they already have.

Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani gave his version of the 12 day war last year. He claimed the United States, which he described as holding fifty percent of global military power, was “defeated and begged for a ceasefire.”
In his fairytale, Israel can fight at that level for ten days, the U.S. for no more than a month, and then both collapse. He said the Americans themselves admitted they could not continue.

He promised that if “the enemy” makes another mistake, Iran will show “the most magnificent defense,” led by the people.

The Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Abdolrahim Mousavi, had a similar line. He said the military is fully prepared for any scenario and ready to carry out its missions under any conditions. He said Iran must stay constantly alert in the face of a hostile enemy that changes its statements all the time. When asked about Netanyahu focusing on Iran’s missile program in his public comments, Mousavi’s answer was short. “He talks a lot.”

The Defense Ministry spokesperson added one more piece. He said the ministry has stopped disclosing new security achievements “for security reasons” and in order to preserve the element of surprise. As we all know, nothing says surprise like telling people there’s a surprise coming.

In Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump tomorrow, he will present what Jerusalem calls Israel’s “key principles”. Limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program. A stop to Iranian support for Hamas, Hezbollah and other proxies. 

The trip was moved up after the Muscat talks and the early signs that things are moving fast. Israeli officials say privately they are worried that the multi party environment around these talks is pulling things toward a deal that looks “not good for us.”

One senior official, speaking to YNET, framed it this way. The process is not just Witkoff and Kushner on one side and Araghchi on the other. Turks, Qataris, Saudis, Egyptians and others are all feeding in. That mix can easily tilt toward a compromise that Washington can sell as “stability” but that leaves Israel exposed on missiles and proxies.

U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee said in an interview there are “no significant gaps” between American and Israeli demands regarding Iran in any agreement. He stressed that Washington and Jerusalem are aligned, that the U.S. wants a deal but not at any price. He wants to calm the fear that Israel currently feels.

He reminded viewers that when Iran refused to move last time, it felt what he called the “kick of a mule.” That is his way of pointing back to the summer strikes and saying the military option remains real if diplomacy fails.

So on one channel you have Netanyahu saying he is worried. On another you have Huckabee saying there is nothing to worry about.

Tehran has noticed Netanyahu’s travel schedule and is responding rhetorically.

Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, met in Oman with Sultan bin Mohammed Al Numani, the minister in charge of the Royal Office….right after the Muscat round and just before a follow up swing to Qatar.

The Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran’s negotiating partner is the United States. Full stop. Washington, he said, should act independently. It should not allow “destructive influences and pressures” from others to shape its decisions….He’s of course talking about Israel.
He said the U.S. must not let outsiders dictate its foreign policy in a way that harms the region or U.S. interests.

That statement is a direct response to Netanyahu’s trip. It is Tehran saying that any deal seen as “Netanyahu’s deal” is unacceptable. They want Washington to signal that it is not negotiating under Israeli pressure.

Israeli media reported recently on joint simulations of major strike operations in the Gulf. The details are fuzzy in open sources, but they are described as large scale scenarios involving U.S. and allied forces. At the same time, CENTCOM continues aerial readiness exercises in the region and keeps the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group on station as a visible deterrent. U.S. air defense deployments to the region are also in the final stretch. At the current pace, the movement of air defense assets should be fully complete within the next few days. Many speculated that this is exactly what the U.S. has been holding off for.

So while negotiators talk about enrichment levels and sanctions sequencing, there is a carrier group in the Arabian Sea, air drills over the Gulf, and fresh U.S. warnings to commercial captains in the Strait of Hormuz.

And in the middle of all that, everyone is still asking how much longer can the IRGC get away with murder.