Ali Shamkhani, the Supreme Leader's senior security adviser, stated: "Any military action by the US from any origin and at any level will be considered the start of war and [the] response will be immediate, all out and unprecedented, targeting the heart of Tel Aviv and all those supporting the aggressor."

Trump pulls the trigger. Iran's response targets Israel and U.S. allies….not the United States itself. Why? What did Tel Aviv do to deserve Iranian missiles if Washington is the one launching strikes?

Israel is involved, as we know, in assisting and planning the bank of potential strike targets inside Iran. Israel and the U.S have been closely coordinating as Iran poses a threat to both countires…. However, Israel, being much closer to Iran than the U.S., they will likely  carry most of the retaliation.
Iran's responses have historically followed this pattern. Before the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, Iran struck with 550+ ballistic missiles and 1,000 suicide drones against Israel…..not against U.S. territory. The pattern is established. The response threat is toward Israel and regional allies, not toward the continental U.S. 

The Mayor of Tehran announced the establishment of shelters throughout, in underground parking lots and metro stations over fears of "a potential war or imminent conflict."

The regime is preparing its civilian population for kinetic strike.

What this indicates: Tehran's leadership is not betting on deterrence alone. Shamkhani can threaten "immediate, all out" response, but the regime is simultaneously preparing for incoming strikes it expects to survive but cannot prevent.

An announcement of civilian shelter construction means:

You don't build shelters if you believe your threats will stop strikes. You build shelters if you're preparing for strikes despite your threats.

The regime is simultaneously saying it's "preparing itself for military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels." But the shelter construction suggests the regime has already accepted that military confrontation is the more likely path.

This is a state preparing for war.

The Israeli Military Intelligence chief is in the U.S. this week for talks on Iran….Mostly to go over potential military operations and strike banks. Saudi officials are visiting DC for de escalation talks as well, according to Axios. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated: "The president always reserves the right to take preemptive action within a defensive framework. In other words, if there are indications that [the Islamic Republic] truly intends to attack our forces in the region, we will act to defend our personnel in the region."

Rubio is signaling that the threshold for U.S. strikes has been lowered. Mere indications of Iranian intent to attack U.S. forces will trigger a preemptive response from Trump. 

Iran's state aligned Kayhan newspaper slammed Trump for "great stupidity" and warned it will "sink American ships" and "close the Strait of Hormuz." These are direct threats to U.S. naval assets and critical global shipping lanes.

Kaja Kallas, the EU's High Representative, announced that the European Union will formally designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Not a militant group. Not a designated entity. A terrorist organization…..the same classification as Al-Qaeda, Hamas, and ISIS.

All 27 EU member states are reportedly aligned. The designation is expected to pass today.

This is important because it collapses space for compromise. If the IRGC is a terrorist organization, then any European government negotiating with them is, by definition, negotiating with terrorists. That's politically impossible. It means Tehran loses the ability to use European intermediaries or European diplomats as back-channels for negotiation.

It also means asset freezes, travel bans, and financial sanctions on IRGC officials and entities become not a strategic choice but an automatic legal requirement. The EU just removed discretion from the system.

The timing is not accidental. Kallas is moving this through today, on January 29, as Trump is actively deliberating on strikes, as the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is positioned in the Gulf, as the military options are fully assembled on the table.
This is political cover fire for whatever comes next from Washington.

Tasnim reports that Iran's armed forces have added 1,000 new drones to their arsenal, designed for attack missions, intelligence gathering, and electronic warfare. But here's where the regime reveals its actual fear: Regime agents are raiding hospitals to obtain paperwork on injured protesters.

According to medical staff in hospitals in Isfahan, repressive forces have raided a number of medical centers and taken away medical records of patients…..especially those injured in recent protests. At the time of admission, in order to protect patients' lives, the real cause of injuries from suppression and gunfire was not recorded in files. Nevertheless, security forces, by seizing the complete files, intend to identify the injured and arrest those who participated in the protests.

Medical staff have warned everyone and have asked people that if they have any signs of injury on their body, in case of contact by security forces or their visit to homes, to temporarily hide themselves and exercise the utmost caution to avoid arrest.

This is the behavior of a security apparatus that has lost control of the narrative and is now resorting to forensic terror. When a regime starts hunting injured people through hospital networks, it's already accepted that it cannot defeat the opposition militarily or politically. The only tactic left is force.

The Iranian currency has lost 12 to 16 percent of its value since Sunday alone. Over the course of January, the rial has dropped more than 5 percent against the dollar. Today, January 29, it's trading at 1,587,000 to 1,627,000 rials per dollar……with a 24-hour high of 1,652,000 and a low of 1,530,000.

This is not normal economic volatility. This is a complete and utter currency freefall…..
When elites see a currency collapsing, they move money out of the country. When ordinary people see a currency collapsing, they rush to spend it before it becomes worthless. When foreign investors see a currency collapsing, they sell. All of this accelerates the collapse in a feedback loop.

While the currency collapses, more bodies keep piling up.
The official Iranian regime count stands at 3,117 deaths. The regime blames much of it on "rioters" and foreign instigators….Trying to label the protestors as “terrorists” to justify killing them. But even this number is demonstrably incomplete.

HRANA has confirmed at least 6,159 deaths as of late January 2026, including 5,804 protesters, 92 children under 18, 214 government personnel, and 53 civilians. They are investigating an additional 17,000+ reported deaths, which could push the total to 23,000+. More than 11,000 people are severely injured. At least 40,887 to 42,486+ people have been arrested across more than 200 cities.

Medical sources and activist networks cite much higher figures….. Time magazine reported that a German/Iranian surgeon named Amir Parasta, drawing from hospital records, estimated approximately 30,304 protest-related deaths in just the first days ALONE(8-9 January). Iran Human Rights, a Norway based group, said that the final toll could exceed 25,000.
UN Rapporteur Mai Sato referenced medical sources suggesting 20,000+ deaths possible, with some estimates up to 25,000-33,000+ or higher.

The regime's response so far? internet blackouts, hospital raids for injury records, shoot to kill orders in areas, adding 1,000 new drones. These are the moves of a regime trying to control whatever it can control (I.E: information flow, physical space, military & police pressure etc.) while watching what it cannot control slip away.

The next 72 hours matter. If Trump signals a pivot toward serious negotiations, the pressure campaign continues without strikes. If he continues escalatory posturing, a strike becomes likely. And if a strike happens, the regional consequences will be borne by everyone in the region. Israel, UAE allies, and potentially U.S. ships and assets/bases throughout the region, including ships and 7 military bases.

So… shelters are being built. The hospitals are being raided. The currency is collapsing. The elites are all hedging their bets. The regime is holding on…but just barely.

Mousa Abu Marzook, Hamas Political Bureau member and deputy head of external relations, made a statement to Al Jazeera that amounts to a public rejection of the entire second phase of any post war Gaza arrangement.

"Hamas has never agreed to hand over its weapons in any form whatsoever," Abu Marzook stated. He elaborated: "We haven't discussed the weapons yet, no one has spoken to us directly about it. We haven't spoken with the American side or the mediators on this issue."

Israel's defense establishment has made it crystal clear: The next phase of Gaza reconstruction will not happen unless Hamas disarms. Without disarmament, there is no IDF withdrawal. Without IDF withdrawal, there is no rebuilding approval. Without rebuilding approval, Gaza remains under effective Israeli military administration indefinitely…..or, as Israeli officials describe it privately, the "Hezbollah model": ongoing strikes against Hamas military infrastructure with no path to political normalization.