Iran's Military: We'll Close the Red Sea. Iran's Politicians: We'll Make a Deal. Trump: The War Is Over.

Iran warned today (April 15) that if the U.S. continues its naval blockade and targets Iranian shipping, it will treat it as a ceasefire breach and move to halt trade across the Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea, vowing a very forceful response.

The blockade is already in full effect. CENTCOM (U.S. Central Command) commander Adm. Brad Cooper confirmed that an estimated 90% of Iran's economy is fueled by international trade by sea. “In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” Cooper said.

And it is reshaping global oil markets fast. The U.S. was producing 13.58 million barrels per day in 2025, about 16% of global crude supply, exporting roughly 4 million barrels per day. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, U.S. April exports jumped to 4.9 million barrels per day, and May is tracking 5.2 million, an all-time record. 28 supertankers are booked for May. Normally it is around 5. Asian buyers that once depended on Hormuz are turning to U.S. supply.

Hours later, AP reported the U.S. and Iran have reached an “agreement in principle” to extend the ceasefire. The blockade continues regardless.

Trump posted that he is “permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz” and said China agreed not to send weapons to Iran. “President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks,” Trump wrote. “Doesn't that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to.”

On the Iranian side, a signal that may matter more than the rhetoric: Iran's FM spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the level and scope of nuclear enrichment are open to negotiation. That's new. The regime has long treated enrichment as a red line.

The Washington Post reported the U.S. is deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, and that U.S. officials are preparing for possible escalation, including potential ground operations inside Iran, according to two U.S. officials.

Israel's Defense Minister says ending the Iran campaign hinges on Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile, a key demand shared with Washington. Iran's Foreign Minister told Spain's FM that “the U.S. needs to fulfill its obligation to end Israeli aggression against Lebanon before a ceasefire in West Asia can materialize.”

Senator Lindsey Graham laid out what he sees as Trump's bottom line: no enrichment, American control of roughly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran abandoning its long-range ballistic missile program, and ceasing support for all terrorist proxies.

“If there is no deal, it is time to finish the job.”

— Senator Lindsey Graham

Lebanon and Israel Sit Down for First Time Since 1993

The U.S. State Department convened a trilateral meeting yesterday (April 14) with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Counselor Michael Needham, Israel's Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, and Lebanon's Ambassador Nada Hamadeh Moawad. It was the first major high-level engagement between the governments of Israel and Lebanon since 1993.

NBC reported that both sides agreed on something that would have been unthinkable a year ago: Hezbollah must be fully disarmed, and Iran should no longer dictate Lebanon's future.

“We discovered today that Lebanon and Israel are on the same side of the equation. We are both united in liberating Lebanon from an occupation power dominated by Iran called Hezbollah. Lebanon is under their occupation and we are suffering from their constant barrages of missiles and terror attacks trying to cross our border.”

— Ambassador Yechiel Leiter

The joint statement laid out concrete commitments. Israel expressed its commitment to working with Lebanon to disarm all non-state terror groups and dismantle all terror infrastructure. Lebanon reaffirmed the need for full implementation of the November 2024 cessation of hostilities, calling for a ceasefire and concrete measures to address the humanitarian crisis.

The U.S. expressed hope that these talks can exceed the scope of the 2024 agreement and produce a comprehensive peace deal, affirming that any agreement must be reached between the two governments, brokered by the United States, and not through any separate track. Washington also expressed support for Israel's right to defend itself from Hezbollah's continued attacks.

The U.S. underscored that these negotiations could unlock significant reconstruction assistance and economic recovery for Lebanon and expand investment opportunities for both countries. All sides agreed to launch direct negotiations at a mutually agreed time and venue.

Car Bombs, Blackout, and Rubble

While the regime negotiates abroad, the situation inside Iran keeps deteriorating. Strong explosions were heard in western Tehran yesterday (April 14). Reports say two car bombs detonated on Tehran's Imam Khomeini Street near a Basij post.

NetBlocks confirmed Iran's nationwide internet blackout has entered its 47th day, with the general public experiencing over 1,100 hours without international connectivity. The population has been cut off from the outside world for nearly seven weeks.

Satellite images from April 10 show Iran has cleared rubble from an underground missile base south of Khomein in central Iran. The site's entrances were disabled by airstrikes, but internal infrastructure was not damaged.

Iran also used a Chinese spy satellite to target U.S. military bases across the Middle East, according to the Financial Times.

“I Thought She Had Courage, But I Was Wrong”

Trump said he was “shocked” after Italian PM Giorgia Meloni refused to back the U.S. in its war with Iran. “I thought she had courage, but I was wrong,” he told Corriere della Sera. The comment was a sharp public break with one of Washington's closest European allies.

Trump also sent a public message to Pope Leo: “Will someone please tell Pope Leo that Iran has killed at least 42,000 innocent, completely unarmed, protesters in the last two months, and that for Iran to have a Nuclear Bomb is absolutely unacceptable.”

The U.S. blockade halted Iran's maritime trade in 36 hours and is already redirecting global oil flows toward American exports at record levels. An “agreement in principle” on a ceasefire extension landed today, even as the Pentagon prepares ground operations and deploys thousands more troops. Iran is signaling for the first time that enrichment levels are negotiable. Israel and Lebanon sat down together for the first time in 33 years, both agreeing Hezbollah must go. Inside Iran, car bombs in Tehran, no internet for 47 days, and military infrastructure still intact under the rubble.

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