Happy New Year from Tehran's streets. On January 1, 2026, Iran's uprising entered its fifth day with a chilling shift: Protests now blanket over 30 cities and towns across 21 provinces, a 67 percent jump from day 3...
What began as bazaar strikes over a collapsing economy has evolved into a direct challenge to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic itself. Security forces are retreating in multiple locations. Symbols of state authority are burning. The taboo has broken.

The currency collapse is the spark and the fuel. The rial has fallen past 1.45 million to the dollar, inflation is nearing 50%, and food prices have surged roughly 50% in a single quarter. Bazaar owners, once a pillar of regime stability, have shuttered shops in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad, Kermanshah, and beyond. Tehran’s Grand Bazaar is effectively paralyzed. What the regime framed as temporary closures has instead amplified the strike wave, which has grown from a handful of markets to more than a dozen major commercial hubs in just 2 days.

Bazaar owners, the regime's traditional constituency, are now its enemy. They are shutting shops, joining strikers, chanting anti Khamenei slogans. People are NOT happy.

Minimum wage averaged roughly $90 to $120 per month (about 130,050,000 to 173,400,000 rials at 1,445,000 rials per $1), while average salaries ranged from about $200 to $400 (around 289,000,000 to 478,000,000 rial).

Basic living costs for a family reached $400 to $600 or more (approximately 578,000,000 to 867,000,000 rials), leaving most households unable to cover essentials on wages alone.

On the streets, the tone has hardened. Footage from Lorestan, Fars, and Isfahan shows security lines breaking under pressure as crowds surge forward. In Kuhdasht, Lorestan Province, clashes left a 21 year old Basij volunteer dead, with at least 16 security personnel injured in separate incidents there and in Fasa. Protesters have torched Basij headquarters, burned police vehicles, and breached government buildings. Molotov cocktails have been used against IRGC units. This is no longer protest management. It is street level confrontation.

Chants reflect how far the movement has gone. Alongside slogans rejecting foreign entanglements, crowds are openly calling for the return of the monarchy, shouting Javid Shah and invoking Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi by name. What was once whispered in private is now shouted in public squares from Tehran to Mashhad to Arak. Universities have joined in, with students striking after raids and arrests, including female students detained for solidarity actions.

International attention is rising as well. U.S. messaging has shifted from narrow sanctions enforcement to overt amplification of protest imagery and rhetoric. As Washington tightens pressure on Iran’s shadow oil networks, it is also signaling that it sees legitimacy eroding inside the country. The regime’s economic promises now ring hollow. Replacing officials and offering dialogue has done little to slow the momentum. For many Iranians, the choice feels binary: face violence in the streets or endure slow economic suffocation at home.

The Islamic Republic still commands weapons and institutions, but cracks are showing. Security units are pulling back rather than advancing in several cities. The economic collapse hits conscripts and militiamen as much as civilians. Loyalty under these conditions is no longer guaranteed.

Interestingly enough, Pezeshkian made a wild claim that if they don't “solve the people’s problems” then they’re all going to Hell….What problems is he talking about?
Because it sure does not seem like any of the people’s requests are being listened to.

With more than 21 provinces in motion, commercial life grinding to a halt, monarchist sentiment breaking long standing taboos, and the economy in freefall, January 1, 2026 marks a clear turning point. The regime remains standing, but it is bleeding authority by the hour. Whether it survives the year ahead may depend less on its firepower than on whether its own forces are willing to keep using it against a population that has already decided it has nothing left to lose.

On New Year's Eve, the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) celebrated with fireworks of another kind.
U.S. officials are considering whether to halt the pursuit of the sanctioned oil tanker Bella 1 after its crew painted a Russian flag on the hull and Moscow formally registered the vessel under its flag, a move that has complicated enforcement efforts at sea.

The Bella 1, a 300 meter crude carrier capable of carrying about 2 million barrels of oil, was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in June 2024 over alleged links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the transport of Iranian oil. The tanker is part of a shadow fleet used to move oil in defiance of sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela.

On Dec. 21, the vessel refused a U.S. Coast Guard request to board while sailing toward Venezuela’s Jose oil terminal and fled into the Atlantic, triggering a pursuit involving U.S. naval assets. Crew members, including Russian, Indian and Ukrainian nationals, painted a Russian tricolor on the hull in what U.S. officials described as an attempt to deter seizure.

Russia later renamed the ship Marinera and added it to its state registry. The tanker, believed to be empty, has since changed course toward the North Atlantic, possibly in the direction of Greenland or Iceland, with its tracking signal switched off since Dec. 17. U.S. forces remain positioned nearby but have paused more aggressive action pending White House guidance amid concerns about a direct confrontation with Moscow.

The standoff comes as Washington intensifies its campaign against illegal maritime and cartel networks, alongside a sharp escalation in military action against drug trafficking at sea.

On Dec. 30, U.S. forces, acting under Operation Southern Spear, carried out kinetic strikes on three vessels moving in convoy along known narcotics routes in international waters. Intelligence indicated active drug transfers between the boats, which were operated by designated terrorist organizations. Three suspects were killed in the initial strike. Survivors abandoned the remaining vessels before follow up strikes sank them. The Coast Guard was alerted to conduct search and rescue operations.

On Dec. 31, similar strikes hit 2 additional vessels, killing 5 more suspects. Since the operation began in September, U.S. forces have struck at least 35 vessels and killed more than 115 suspected traffickers in efforts aimed at disrupting fentanyl and other drug flows. Specific locations were not disclosed, though past operations have taken place in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific.

As the Bella 1 case drags on, it is emerging as an early test of Washington’s resolve to enforce oil sanctions at sea, even as rival powers probe the limits of U.S. maritime enforcement.

Russia claimed on December 29, 2025, that Ukraine launched 91 long-range drones targeting President Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast, some 400 kilometers northwest of Moscow. The Russian Ministry of Defense said it intercepted 90 drones over western regions with no casualties or damage. Putin was not at the residence.
The incident has exploded into competing narratives, with Ukraine flatly denying involvement, the CIA finding no evidence the residence was targeted, and AI generated videos flooding the internet depicting physically impossible scenes like cars driving through water fountains….And people just eat it up.

The Russian MoD released a map showing drone interception points and claimed to have extracted flight plan files proving the Valdai residence was the target. 

Night time footage of downed drones circulated, along with debris photos. But the Institute for the Study of War deemed the evidence unpersuasive, citing inconsistencies.
The AI generated videos claiming to show the strike are digital nonsense designed to poison the information space.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it a lie. The CIA's assessment, reported by the Wall Street Journal, was direct: no indication Putin or his residence was targeted. U.S. officials concluded the drones aimed at a separate military objective elsewhere in the region. One U.S. intelligence source estimated no drone approached within 50 kilometers of the residence.

In a rare post last night, Trump reshared a New York Post article arguing that “Russia is the primary obstacle to peace”. Quite a statement from the President.

The incident occurred as Russia and Ukraine edge toward negotiations. Russia used the alleged strike to justify hardening its negotiating position. International reactions ranged from condemnation to skepticism, with many nations simply swallowing Moscow's narrative without verification.

Ukraine has grown lethal at long range, capable of striking Russian airfields and logistics hundreds of kilometers away. Russia can intercept most strikes, but not all. The psychological impact matters more than actual damage. That is why Moscow invented the assassination narrative. Admitting Ukraine struck a military site deep in Russia looks like failure.