Movement has begun at one of the quietest corners of the American footprint in the Gulf. Some U.S. personnel have been instructed to depart Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command. In the Middle East, precaution often comes before clarity.

The departure came as Tehran sharpened its warnings. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran had informed U.S. allies across the region that their territory would not be immune if Washington strikes Iran. From Saudi Arabia and the UAE to Turkey, the message was direct. American bases on their soil would be targeted. 

Iran fired missiles at Al Udeid last year in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. The precedent is recent and remembered. The geography of U.S. power in the region remains dense and exposed.

At the same time, Qatar was pushing in the opposite direction. Doha has been lobbying President Donald Trump against military action, arguing that a strike on Iran would threaten oil markets, damage the U.S. economy, and trigger domestic backlash. The appeal was grounded in consequence rather than ideology.

Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, the former Qatari prime minister and head of the Qatar Investment Authority, warned that military action against Iran would not serve the interests of America’s friends in the region or regional stability itself. 

Any destabilization inside Iran, he said, would lead to chaos with unknowable outcomes. Despite deep disagreements with Tehran, he argued that dialogue remains the only viable path.

Many countries have begun telling their citizens to evacuate Iran immediately. Including Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, India, Germany, Japan, Sweden, The UK and of course the U.S.

Israel is also on high alert, anticipating a potential Iranian response as things heat up.

According to an Israeli assessment cited by Reuters, President Trump has decided to intervene in Iran, though the scope and timing remain unclear. A second Israeli official said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet was briefed on the possibility of U.S. intervention or even regime collapse. 

Trump has publicly warned Tehran that executions of protesters would trigger very strong action. Speaking to reporters, he said the United States would not accept what is happening in Iran and suggested consequences would follow if hangings proceed. He offered no details.

Across the region, direct diplomatic contacts have frayed. An Iranian official told Reuters that talks between Iran’s foreign minister and the U.S. special envoy had been suspended. Even as Iranian officials spoke with counterparts in Qatar, Turkey, and the UAE, the posture hardened.

The region now waits in a familiar silence. Bases adjust quietly. Diplomats issue warnings.
And everyone understands that once the first move is unmistakable, it will already be too late to reverse.

Erfan Soltani is 26 years old. He was arrested on January 8 during protests in Karaj. According to the Hengaw rights group, he is scheduled to be executed today, Wednesday, making him the first protester sentenced to hanging in this phase of the unrest. Due to Iran’s internet shutdown, Reuters was unable to independently confirm whether the sentence has been carried out.

His case is not isolated. Rights groups say more than 18,137 protesters have been detained nationwide. Many face charges of waging war against Allah, an offense that can carry the death penalty by hanging. 

The scale of the violence is growing. The U.S. based HRANA rights group says it has verified the deaths of 2,403 protesters and 147 government affiliated individuals. An Iranian official told Reuters that about 2,000 people have been killed. CBS cites an eyewitness who says an official IRGC report puts the number above 20,000. Other outlets such as Axios puts the number closer to 5,000….Though many voices from Iran say the number even exceeds CBS’s.

The protests now represent one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.

Iran’s chief justice has removed any doubt about the judiciary’s intent. Visiting a Tehran prison holding arrested protesters, he said speed in judging and punishing those accused of violence was essential. If action is to be taken, he said, it must be taken now. The message was not legal. It was political.

State television has aired funerals for more than 100 civilians and security personnel killed during the unrest. Pro government rallies have been staged to project loyalty. There have been no visible fractures in the security forces, which continue to suppress demonstrations across the country.

President Trump has publicly drawn a line around executions. In an interview, he said the United States would take very strong action if Iran hangs protesters. He urged Iranians to continue protesting and declared that help is on the way, without explaining what that meant.

Iranian authorities reject responsibility for the unrest, blaming the United States and Israel for fomenting violence. They describe protesters as terrorists and accuse them of attacking security forces, mosques, and public property.

The internet blackout has left Iran largely sealed off, with information leaking out in fragments. What is clear is the pace. Arrests are rapid. Trials are compressed. Sentences move faster than facts.

For those inside Iran’s prisons, the crisis is no longer measured in weeks or statements from abroad. It is measured in hours. Speed, as the state has made clear, is the point.

In the corridors where Hamas now governs itself, power has become quieter and more fragile. The movement that once revolved around a single figure has been living under a form of collective rule since Israel killed Yahya Sinwar in 2024. That interregnum is nearing its end.

According to two people inside the organization, Hamas is preparing to choose a new leader this month. The decision will be made in secret, by ballot, among senior figures scattered between Gaza, Judea and Samaria, and exile. It will be the first such vote since the war that began on October 7, 2023 tore through the group’s leadership with lethal efficiency.

The names most often mentioned are Khalil Al Hayya and Khaled Meshaal. Both live in Qatar. Both survived Israel’s long campaign against Hamas’ senior ranks. Both represent different instincts inside a movement struggling to decide what it is now.

Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 attack, was killed in Gaza. His predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran. Saleh Al Arouri, the deputy leader, died in an Israeli strike in Lebanon. The pattern is impossible to ignore. Any successor will inherit not only the organization but the certainty of being hunted.

Since Sinwar’s death, Hamas has been run by a 5 member leadership council. Some within the group argued for extending that arrangement, a way to blur responsibility and lower the odds that a single killing could again decapitate the movement. Others pushed to restore a single leader, a figure who could negotiate, command loyalty, and project continuity.

Meshaal is often described by analysts as a pragmatist, fluent in the language of regional diplomacy and well connected in Sunni Arab capitals. He led Hamas for nearly 20 years and survived an Israeli assassination attempt in Jordan in 1997, when agents injected him with poison. Hayya, born in Gaza, emerged as Hamas’ chief negotiator and is widely seen as closer to Iran. He was targeted in an Israeli strike in Qatar in September, an incident that prompted a rare apology from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Qatar’s emir after U.S. intervention.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said that amid reports of a move to the next stage of the deal, it is urging Benjamin Netanyahu to honor his commitment not to advance to phase B until Roni is brought home.

On that note, Netanyahu’s plane, Wing Of Zion, was seen leaving Israel. This was a routine drill.

In any case, the vote comes as the war in Gaza has slowed but not ended. A U.S. brokered ceasefire in October reduced large scale fighting, yet Israeli forces still control close to half of the enclave. Gaza’s cities lie in ruins. More than 71,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to local health authorities. Inside Gaza, Hamas faces resentment as well as fear, blamed by many for provoking a war whose costs have been catastrophic.
International pressure has mounted for Hamas to disarm. U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan envisions Gaza governed by a technocratic Palestinian administration under international oversight. Hamas has rejected disarmament, saying weapons would only be surrendered as part of a future Palestinian state, a scenario Israel has dismissed outright.

The Shoura Council, a 50 member body, will also select a new deputy leader. The process, those familiar with it say, is already underway.

Hamas was founded in 1987 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its charter once openly called for Israel’s destruction. Over the years, its leaders have hinted at long truces and partial accommodations, proposals Israel regards as tactical deception.

Now the movement stands at one of the most exposed moments in its history. Whoever emerges from the vote will lead an organization battered by war, divided over its future, and shadowed by the knowledge that leadership itself has become a fatal position.