War with Iran is coming. The only question is who strikes first, and who beyond Iran will jump in to join the party. Israel and the U.S. are moving pieces into place with almost everything complete and ready to go. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias are already talking about holy war. So much so that the head of Kataib Hezbollah, based in Iraq, said he would PERSONALLY carry out a suicide mission if war breaks out between the U.S. and Iran.
So, It's not a question of if anymore. It's when.

Three camps have emerged inside Israel's security establishment. One camp argues for continuing to pursue the unfinished target set from the 12 day war. A second camp says Israel should hold fire and respond only if it is directly attacked. A third camp favors going all in with the United States. They want to coordinate a joint campaign and divide the target bank between Israel and the U.S.

Israeli Brigadier General Amir Avivi laid out 3 possible scenarios.

In any scenario, Iran is expected to retaliate with proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis, cyberattacks, and terror attacks. Avivi believes that a decisive attack would significantly minimize Iran's ability to retaliate. He also expresses hope that an external attack on the Iranian regime will lead to a new popular uprising within Iran, as the people are waiting for the right moment to act.

A January 2026 INSS survey indicates 45% of Israelis support a proactive strike on Iran now. Among the Jewish public, support rises to 51%. Meanwhile, 43% oppose it. Right-wing support stands at 61%. Center-left opposition sits at 28%. A majority of 62.5% believes renewed fighting with Iran is required within six months.

Israeli preparations remain high. Airports and hospitals are ready to go into a state of emergency at a moment’s notice. The IDF and Air Force stay on alert for potential US strike scenarios, ready to provide backup and defend if necessary. Contingency plans cover everything from potential airspace closure and Iranian retaliation on Israeli soil. The focus, as of now, stays on unfinished targets from the 2025 war….Iran bragged that the 12 Day War was not as effective as Trump made it seem. This time, Trump wants to leave no room for doubt.
Israel also prepares for a possible supporting role in US led action.

Yesterday, the New York Times reported that President Trump received multiple US intelligence reports. Indicating that Iran's government position is progressively weakening. The regime sits at its lowest point since the 1979 revolution overthrowing the Shah. The protests that erupted so far have completely shaken regime elements. The economy remains historically weak. To a point that is almost unimaginable. Assessments now show major instability in areas previously secure for Supreme Leader Khamenei.

HRANA reports that confirmed and “under review” fatalities from Iran's nationwide protests have now surpassed 23,000, with verification ongoing…Its difficult with limited internet access which makes full data collection almost impossible.
Confirmed deaths stand at 6,126 (5,777 protesters, 86 children, 214 regime forces, 49 non-protesters), plus 17,091 under investigation…..for a total of 23,217….alongside 11,009 severely injured, a whopping 41,880 arrests, 245 forced confessions broadcast, and 11,024 summoned to intelligence agencies.
The real toll is likely higher as HRANA continues verification. This is part of the reason why Iran refuses to turn the internet back on. They have a lot to hide

U.S. officials say any potential deal requires removal of all enriched uranium stockpiles from Iran. The deal would impose strict limits on long range missile capabilities and stockpiles. Iran must also halt support for regional proxy groups, something that will undoubtedly be impossible for them. A permanent ban on independent uranium enrichment inside Iran would also apply (sorry Tucker). Tehran has obviously not accepted any of these conditions.

The Trump administration stays open to talks…..Yesterday, an Axios interview featured Trump saying the Iran situation is "in flux." He notes this comes after sending a "big armada" to the region. Trump believes Tehran "wants a deal" and "they want to talk." In Trump’s language, Washington is “open for business” However, Trump insists on the above terms. Knowing that these terms are not acceptable by Iran shows a similar set of tactics employed by Trump before the 12 Day War….It’s essentially a signal that war is imminent. And Trump is holding the gun to their heads, warning of what is to come. These demands call for halting nuclear escalations. They seek curbs on ballistic missiles. They demand an end to proxy support. Iran remains steadfast in their refusal.

i24NEWS reports show the Trump administration studying scenarios for a possible naval blockade. The blockade would choke off Iran's oil exports at sea, an approach mirroring the Venezuela model. The US builds up forces. Aircraft carrier groups like USS Abraham Lincoln operate in the Gulf. Trump described a "big armada/flotilla" heading toward Iran "just in case." The goal is to raise economic pressure on the regime, yet it is unclear how much more pressure Iran can withstand being in their current economic position..

Iran's Central Bank is set to print 2 quadrillion rials. This amounts to about $1.36 billion equivalent. The money is supposed to provide emergency aid for insolvent banks who are all going under. Iranian banks requested up to 5.6 quadrillion rials to hedge against the economic decline. This leads to currency devaluation and an even stronger inflation cycle. Banks in Iran now face insolvency issues on top of the economic situation.

Iran's official statistics office reports annual point-to-point inflation reached 60% in the December 2025/January 2026 period. This marks the highest ever on record. Food and beverages inflation hits 89.9%. Overall annual inflation stands around 44.6% in some segments. Economists warn it could exceed 60% by the end of March 2026. Money printing, sanctions, and of course the regional conflict all play a part.

As we know, Iran is not alone. Naeem Qassem gave a speech yesterday in Dahieh, Beirut. He said Hezbollah is not neutral if the US and Israel move against Iran. He said that any war on Iran would set the entire region on fire. This is code for “we will join if we need to”.
Hezbollah remains determined to defend itself and its hold on Lebanon. The group expresses concern with confronting US threats, including to Khamenei. Mediators indicated Hezbollah could face hits in such a scenario…. Even more than they are already getting from Israel due to their stubbornness in not disarming as per their ceasefire agreement with Israel.
Naeem Qassem says Hezbollah stands prepared to act in Iran's defense.

If Iran strikes first, the regime goes after US assets primarily. If Israel detects imminent Iranian preparations, Israel strikes preemptively and very hard. If the US decides to strike first, Israel plays a supporting role…. War comes regardless. The only question that remains is who pulls the trigger first.

Yesterday, the impossible happened. Israeli forces finally recovered the body of Master Sgt. Ran Gvili. Ran Gvili had been in captivity for 843 days after dying on October 7 with Hamas taking his body hostage. After a back and forth with Hamas, they finally agreed to share the location of his body. Israel found it in a Muslim cemetery in eastern Gaza City. The site lies within the Israeli controlled "yellow line" area in northern Gaza. They found his body wrapped in a Shifa Hospital body bag. Troops had to examine about 250 bodies before confirming his identity through dental records. The body appeared intact. He wore his police uniform, boots, and belt. The effort involved removing around 700 bodies in combat conditions. Hamas was supposed to hand over all hostages within 72 hours. They delayed endlessly to regroup and rebuild. 

This marks the return of the last remaining hostage from Gaza. No Israeli hostages, living or deceased, remain in the Gaza Strip. This is the first time since 2014.
Ran Gvili was 24 years old. He served as an elite counterterrorism police officer in a special forces unit. Hamas killed him while defending Kibbutz Alumim in southern Israel.
Gvili was on medical leave recovering from a fractured shoulder. He rushed to join the fight anyway. Militants shot him in the leg. He died in battle before they took his body.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke in eastern Gaza City. He addressed troops during a ceremony. For more than two years, they waited for this moment. The return of the last hostage completes a principal mission. All hostages, living and fallen, return to homes, country, and families. Israel has completed a massive war objective but the campaign continues.
Hamas abducted 251 people on October 7, 2023. Many returned alive through deals. Others came back deceased over time. Ran Gvili was the final one. All prior living and deceased hostages are now accounted for.

Prime Minister Netanyahu named it a tremendous accomplishment. They brought everyone back, down to the very last one.

President Isaac Herzog removed his hostage pin. The Hostage Family Forum officially stopped the countdown clock that stood in Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square.

But this is just the beginning.

With all hostages back, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the next stage. Israel must dismantle Hamas completely. That becomes the next move. The goal is to completely demilitarize the Gaza Strip enabling the reconstruction project to begin.

Netanyahu has stated that Hamas continues to possess approximately 60,000 AK47 rifles which he says form part of the group's arsenal for maintaining control and carrying out operations in Gaza.

In addition, certain high ranking officials within the Israeli military have proposed a potential incentive based approach….. allowing Hamas limited access to civilian infrastructure development projects (such as rebuilding or rehabilitation efforts) as a trade off for either surrendering roughly 5,000 of these weapons or revealing the precise locations of three key tunnels in the network.

According to Brigadier general Avivi, dismantling Hamas means killing Hamas terrorists or forcing them out of Gaza. Where to? He didn't say.
The IDF will likely maneuver again. They will gain more ground. They will push Hamas into smaller areas. The aim is unconditional surrender or to face systematic destruction.

Massive tunnel infrastructure remains. The IDF has not yet controlled all of these areas, and almost daily, Israel still works to locate and destroy any and all remaining tunnels inside the strip. 

Now that all hostages are home, The Rafah crossing is set to open. But this time, It permits only people to enter and exit. No goods will cross through it. Israel monitors every individual 100 percent. The IDF controls the entire Philadelphi Corridor. They hold the Rafah area and the crossing itself. This setup prevents weapons or terrorists from reaching Hamas.

In regards to goods, major supplies enter Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing from Israel. Israel monitors that route as well. With Israel giving a watchful eye, serious smuggling proves almost impossible.
The IDF's full control of the Philadelphi corridor ensures this. Occasional drone smuggling attempts happen but the IDF counters these with new technologies.

Opening Rafah presents an interesting opportunity. The agreement requires Egyptians to allow any Gazans who want to leave safe passage. The US is planning a temporary camp near Rafah for staging and mobilization. Many Gazans will likely choose to exit.
Few people want to enter Gaza's current reality under Hamas. If managed properly, Rafah becomes a serious advantage, both for citizens of Gaza, and for Israeli efforts to dismantle Hamas.

Trump has been slowly but surely rounding up the entire planet for his new “Board Of Peace” Initiative, which is being described as a new alternative to the UN. Many countries involved are staunch allies of the US and Israel both. Yet some, according to Brigadier general Aviv, raise concerns.
Qatar and Turkey are two of those countries. Their role mainly  involves raising money. But Israel will not allow Qatari or Turkish forces into Gaza. This is a red line for Israel. They are fine with countries helping out, if it meets shared goals, but no potentially hostile troops will be allowed on the ground so close to home. Many see Qatar’s involvement as a classic double agent scenario. They funded Hamas, provided safe haven for Hamas leadership, and now join the peace efforts to dismantle the very group they spent years protecting. 

What is clear is that the next phase can officially begin. With all the hostages home, Israel does not have to fear, and can operate freely on the ground. Will Hamas disarm? Will they concede to another government taking over control? That has yet to be seen, but Trump certainly remains hopeful.